FBR Open

Update: Not much to be encouraged about from the pre-tournament picks so far. Still think this one is far from over though and that Mickelson's price looks very short with 36 holes still to play.

Back Scott Verplank 1pt e/w (4 places) @66/1 at Bet365
Back Rory Sabbatini 1pt e/w (4 places) @66/1 at Bet365, BetInternet
Back Patrick Sheehan 0.25pts @180 at Betfair

Even if Verplank and Sabbatini aren't able to overhaul Mickelson, these look very generous odds purely for the place terms. Will have a little on Sheehan at large odds for a possible trading opportunity.

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Most books have priced up now so the market should be fairly stable.

Back K.J. Choi 0.5pts e/w @100/1 at ladbrokes
Back Jay Haas 0.5pts e/w @100/1 at ladbrokes
Back Chad Campbell 0.5pts e/w @100/1 at ladbrokes
Back Shigeki Maruyama 0.5pts e/w @50/1 at Victor Chandler, Bet365
Back Zach Johnson 0.25pts e/w @80/1 at SportingOdds/SportingBet
Back Stephen Ames 0.25pts e/w @66/1 generally
Back Geoff Ogilvy to finish in the top five 0.2pts @33/1 at SkyBet
Back Kirk Triplett 0.2pts e/w @125/1 generally
Back Jesper Parnevik 0.2pts e/w @125/1 generally
Back Mark Hensby 0.2pts e/w @150/1 at ladbrokes


No, I haven't gone completely insane! Some price discrepancies between the books mean there is a lot of value to be had out there. Not least at Ladbrokes where established and proven winners like Choi and Campbell are at many times the odds of far poorer players and far less likely winners who are simply flavour of the week after showing some early season form. A few familiar faces in there - and I will continue to tip them up while I believe the prices on offer are still value - they are all the sorts of players who get forgotten about if they haven't had a good finish for a few weeks. The odds are very fickle and often over-reactive to recent form - remember we were able to get 125/1 on Lehman only 3 weeks a go - he is a best price 28/1 now! The very short of odds of players like Howell III and Leonard can be taken advantage of in the long odds offered on other players. They would also in my opinion be value lays on Betfair - but as I have said before due to the high risk to small reward nature of laying individual players I will not currently be offering that sort of tip here.

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After consideration of feedback I have received (many thanks to those who got in touch) I have decided to stop posting plays which are based on early Monday prices which invariably do not last long enough for many people to get them. From now on any pre-tournament plays posted will be made after the markets have had a chance to 'settle down' (Monday evening - Tuesday morning) so the prices will be available to a wider number of people. This also means that there will very rarely be any opportunity for pre-tournament trading as has been used the past few weeks.

I will also be having a slight shift in focus to provide more in-running plays - although note that these will only ever be posted in between rounds.

I hope that these changes will make the page more useful to everyone.
Chris