|
|
 |
 |
|
|
|
Summary: 2 Bets, 1 Win, 1 Loss. Loss 3.15 Pts Bet 1 - Sell Markus Brier over Thongchai Jaidee 18H MB at 6 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts. M/U 22, Loss 4.8 Pts 18H betting is the most volatile of all the spread markets on golf as no matter how much better one player is to another they will not produce the lowest score all the time over such a short span as 18 holes. Therefore when Sporting are 6-9 for the slightly better player in a fairly equal matchup then you have to take an interest. H2Hs show a 8-6-3 R1 lead to Jaidee and a 9-6-2 lead in events although Brier is favourite because he has been in far greater form recently than Jaidee, winning 3 and drawing 2 of the last 6 events they have both appeared in. However, on Thursdays, in R1, Jaidee has only lost two rounds in that period.
Bet 2 - Sell Simon Dyson over Maarten Lafeber 18H MB at 5.5 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.3 Pts M/U 0, Profit 1.65 Pts This price seems to be heavily influenced by a 64 in R4 of the PGA from Dyson, rather than an average 23rd place in Scandinavia last week. If you look at the long term stats, they are tit for tat in 17 matches over 18 months, Dyson winning 9 of the matches (Lafeber 4 of the last 5) and Lafeber 9 of the R1 matches (6 of the last 7). Course form sees Dyson a perfect one win from one start whereas Lafeber missed the cut in Kennemer's only involvement in this event. His record generally in his home country is good and like the first bet the price is just a good 3 points higher than it realistically should be. |
|
