FINAL RESULT: 0-2; -2.00pts

Els 2nd
Casey 20th

Els really should have won this event with a two-shot lead heading into the final round. Impressive play by Stenson, but it was Els' poor putting all week that enabled the Swede to seize his opportunity.

Further outright play (total stake: 1pt)

Ernie Els to win 8.25/1 @ The Greek
Wasn't expecting this at all! I'd priced Els at no more than 5/1 for this event and so was not going to back him at a best price of 11/2 (better value elsewhere) ... until The Greek released their lines! Where do you start? Very impressive last week, considering it was his first tournament for four weeks; returned to the winner's fold last month in the South African Open; a three-time winner on this course and has yet to finish outside the top-3 in any of the last six years; he is the course record holder (61) and has won more than double the prize money in this event than anyone else; is in the process of building his own course in Dubai - the Dunes at Victory Heights; his family has flown over to spend the week with him in Dubai (including a teacher for daughter, Samantha!); and this is such a good week to oppose Tiger. I'll gladly take this offering from The Greek!

Outright play (total stake per play: 1pt)

Paul Casey to win 22/1 e.w. @ BetInternet, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, Paddy Power and Coral
Having won the Abu Dhabi Golf Championship in such impressive form two weeks ago, particularly in the last round, it is easy to overlook his missed cut last week. And, in fact, it should help him prepare fully for this event. He does not have a good record against Tiger, but this should be a very good week to take Woods on - winning without playing anywhere near his best last week and immediately travelling a very long distance when wanting to spend more time than previously close to home - and he could certainly push Els all the way for this title if in contention over the weekend. He has played here twice, shooting every round under par and ranking in the top-5 in greens in regulation each time so this is clearly a course that suits his attacking style of golf. Els may certainly be the player to beat this week. but at four times the odds, Casey looks far better value.

Waiting on lines for the remaining plays.