RegisterLoginLogout Follow @Golf_Stats

FINAL RESULT: 2-1; +3.25pts

Clarke 3rd
Casey 2nd
Dougherty 19th

Clarke holds a two-shot lead with ten holes to play when they re-start on Monday ... he loses that lead by the 16th but is still tied for the lead with Bjorn and Casey with one hole to play ... he duffs his chip from the front of the last green and three-putts, closely followed by Casey who also three-putts to hand the title to Bjorn. Looks like this season is carrying on where I left it before taking my break. Words fail me.

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Darren Clarke to win 20/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
With David Howell withdrawing, there is certainly good value at 20/1 with Clarke, particularly in front of an Irish crowd. He showed his abilities last week when claiming the first round lead at the British Masters and maybe his competitive rustiness was a factor when he fell from 3rd to 11th in the final round. He has certainly had plenty of off-course issues to attend to since he withdrew from the Houston Open last month to be with his wife. But now he is back on the course, and particularly on the European Tour, he should be backed and looks a good proposition to win his fourth Tour title in Ireland.

Paul Casey to win 22/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
Casey remained in contention even longer than Clarke last week and looked set to win until dropping four shots in three holes around the turn on Sunday. That run and particularly his double-bogey at the 10th hole when he paid the penalty for attacking the green with his tee-shot maintained the question marks over his ability to close out events, but he was a two-time winner on Tour last year and he has finished in the top-5 in his three starts in the last month. At 22/1, there is certainly value here.

Nick Dougherty to win 50/1 e.w. available generally
By contrast, Dougherty did not contend last week at the Belfry, missing the cut though he followed his opening 78 with 69 so he should feel better coming into this event than he did last Thursday. And having finished 4th in his previous outing in Japan and achieved three other top-4 finishes in nine starts this year, his ratio of place finishes to starts is very healthy for a 50/1 shot. Add in his strong performance on this course last year and there is certainly value at these odds: he took a two-shot lead into the final round and started well, but never recovered from the shock of four-putting the 5th hole for a double bogey. He is a year older and an even better player now.