Qatar Masters

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

FINAL RESULT: 1-3; -1.63pts

McGinley 71st
Dodd 32nd
Karlsson 5th
Woosnam 74th

Quite a mix of emotions following Karlsson over the weekend. The player with a reputation for not staying on leaderboards entered the weekend in 2nd place, faltered badly on Saturday to fall to 6th and out of the places as might well be expected and then it looked ominous as he was paired with Els in the final round. So I suppose relief is the final emotion that he managed a small payout after a three-way tie for the last place position.

Paul McGinley to win 25/1 e.w. @ Bet365, BetInternet and BlueSq
There is a market 'w/o Els' this week as he is clearly the class player in this field, but I'd rather take the much bigger odds in the normal outright market as it is no foregone conclusion that he will be as focussed on this event as he was last week ... and there were times last week when it looked as if he was not focussed on that event at all! So siding with McGinley who still finds winning difficult, but can produce a decent profit if placed this week. He is in good form with three strong performances in his three starts in 2005 and until last week, his worst finish in this event had been 21st. In this form, he should be looking to match his 3rd place finish of two years ago.

Stephen Dodd to win 50/1 e.w. available generally
I don't understand these odds. Dodd was the most impressive player on view at the weekend and his composure when in contention showed how far he has come in the past year. He won in China in November and last week he looked like he would win again many more times. And as for his poor course form, he has never entered this event in this sort of form. In the last two years, he has missed the cut at Dubai by a very big margin, but he still recorded his best finish around Doha last year (25th) and should do so again this year.

Robert Karlsson to win 66/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
The tallest players on Tour should struggle in the wind, but there is little evidence of that happening with Karlsson. He has finished 5th in New Zealand last month and 6th last week on courses where wind is a factor. Clearly in good form, he should be optimistic on his return to Doha where he is the course record holder. He shot 63 in 2001 to hold the lead after each of the first three rounds, but only a dramatic finish from Tony Johnstone stopped him from winning that week. It has been a long time since he won, but a place finish looks a decent proposition.

Ian Woosnam to win 150/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds and BlueSq
Missed the 200/1 by minutes, but still lots of value here and particularly on this course. Woosie was the leader of this event after the second round last year and while he faltered over the weekend, it shows that he can still play well on windswept courses. He did, after all, finish 2nd in 2000 at Doha. In terms of current form, last week was his first outing of 2005 so 40th place is a decent finish and he should be stronger this week, plus he has only missed one of his last eleven cuts. Not playing well enough to earn a place in the next Ryder Cup team, but he does tend to play very well in certain weeks and the newly-announced next Ryder Cup captain has had a very large boost to his self-esteem in the last couple of weeks. He may well transfer some of that onto the course this week.