Tipster: Shaker

Algarve Open de Portugal

Back Robert Karlsson to win 1.5 pts @ 50 at Betfair (also 50/1 at Stan James)
Karlsson has been giving hints that he may be about to strike form for some weeks now. 16th/46th/16th/56th/25th has succeeded 3 missed cuts that he started the season with and, because he is in a weak field on a course where he has a 3rd placed finish in 1999, I feel that a few extra holed putts are all that is needed for him to seriously contend this week.

Back Maarten Lafeber to win 2 pts @ 38 at Betfair (currently 40)
Lafeber is potentially the best player in this field despite being disappointing so far this season, especially after his 5th in South Africa on his 2nd start. However, the disappointment in him so far is reflected in his price; had he been in good form we'd have seen under 20/1 and I don't think he deserves to be shunted out so far in the betting quite yet. His GIR and Putts Per GIR figures are actually nicely better than the last two years and that suggests to me that only a small spark is needed to propel him into the limelight again. Even his last three outings haven't been disastrous; 34th and 29th in the ones he completed, and, sandwiched in between, tied 31st when withdrawing at halfway in Qatar. Again, the suggestion is that he is right on the fine line between success and failure and, while I probably wouldn't take 25/1, this is a price worth chancing.


Summary:

To call the failure of either of these to get involved after being very well placed indeed in the early stages a disappointment would be a massive understatement.

Staked 3.5 pts, Loss 3.5 pts