Tipster: Andy

Dubai Desert Classic

Round Two Trades

Sell David Howell over Nick Faldo 18H MB at 3 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts. (M/U -16, Profit 14.25pts)
Forgetting the scores today (Howell 6 ahead of Faldo) this is value at the price. Faldo has to perform tomorrow to get into the weekend and Howell may find himself consolidating his position rather than shooting at the pin. A value bet at the price offered.

Summary (Weekly Record 1-0, Profit 14.25 pts)

My thoughts on the "disaster" bets will be on the PGA site and although this result ate into that loss, what is of more concern this week and in the longer term is that, in what was previously a very fruitful market, we only had one bet.

The spread firms possibly are being much tighter on their prices for 18H MB's than they have previously so it means more work will have to be done to unearth good quality bets. Hopefully next week we can achieve that and still manage to create a 60% win/loss average which should ensure some profits, which will in time deal with the losses in Miami.

Tipster: Shaker

Dubai Desert Classic

Sell Tiger Woods/Ernie Els 72H MB 1 pt at 2 with Sporting Index (M/U -1, Profit = 3 pts)
Els is well rested and has a wonderful record here while Woods has plenty on his plate this week. He has his swing problems to overcome as well as very different putting surfaces to last week, then he has the tiredness from all those matchplay rounds and a very different time-zone to contend with. Els has the perfect tee-time in round one while Woods has an afternoon start which could well be affected by the wind. Not too far-fetched to imagine a 6 or 7 shot difference here after round one and, if so, we can look at what profit there would be by closing the trade before round two. I'd be selling Woods in this match at down to 1.5 I think.

Round Two Trade

Buy Thomas Bjorn/Ian Poulter 18H MB at 4 with SportsSpread & Spreadex for 0.5 pts (M/U -22, Loss = 13 pts)
Neither had a good day today, but while that was entirely expected of Poulter it was a surprise to see Bjorn not continue his excellent record on the course he knows so well. It'll be some feat if Poulter turns it round tomorrow after all the poor scores he's had here but Bjorn will surely be putting a big effort in. I know I've already gone against Poulter in a 72H matchup but after see him struggle so badly again here and being fully expectant of a Bjorn recovery tomorrow, I have to play at this price.

Round Three Trade

Sell Bradley Dredge/Mark O'Meara 18H MB at 4 with Spreadex for 0.5 pts (M/U -22, Profit = 13 pts)
Not much time to elaborate but I'd make this much more of a 'choice' bet. Dredge's record when the heat is on versus O'Meara's experience does not lend itself to the Welshman being this heavy a favourite in my opinion.
Since posting this, IG have priced up. They agree and go just 0-3.
 

Summary (Weekly Record 2-1, Profit 3 pts)

Dredge did us proud but Bjorn was absolutely rubbish. Els at least got us the right side with a good Sunday but he was poor prior to that too.