Loch Lomond

Lee Westwood may have withdrawn after winning three of his last six tournaments, but this is undoubtedly the strongest field of the year so far on the European Tour, boasting five of the top-10 in the world rankings. On many occasions the week before a "Major" sees a poor field as the top players have their minds on other things, but not this week. "One of the five best courses in the world" is how Ernie Els describes this course. Like every great course, each hole demands full attention and course management is paramount. There are rewards for attacking golf, but the penalties are just as severe. For the more conservative, the driving areas are fairly generous and a good all-round game is required for a good performance. But as with any event in Scotland, much will depend on the weather and this will be part of an acclimatization for next week and St. Andrews.

The top-ranked this week is Colin Montgomerie. He is the defending champion and in this event's four-year history he has never been outside the top-ten or shot a round over-par. He has the perfect game for this type of course. With the Americans more concerned with next week and using this as a "run-out", he will be very pleased if he can get the upper hand over the Americans on his home turf. The top price is 8/1 at the Starnet books, so the win-only bet is taken on Monty. Behind Monty is Els in the rankings. He was 2nd here three years ago and is obviously a big fan of the course. Did display good form on the PGA Tour without winning, so at 11/1 with William Hill, the e/w play on the first-four places seems the safest bet.

The dark horse this week is actually ranked 3rd in this week's ratings. Retief Goosen is the course record holder at Loch Lomond and has finished in the top-10 here on his last two visits. Not quite in the form that he was last year, but that and the high quality field have ensured a decent price for the Springbok whose desire to win this event will not be matched by many. Victor Chandler price him at 40/1 and with them paying e/w bets on the first five places, it looks a good proposition.

Early 72-hole plays:

Retief Goosen to beat Notah Begay +100 @ Victor Chandler
Definitely a form horse having won his last two events, but this is Begay's first time to Scotland and it is certainly a lot colder than New Mexico. A may take some time to acclimatize

Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat Michael Campbell -111 @ Sportingbet [3 units]
Still riding the anti-Campbell train! He did finish 7th last year after previously playing poorly on this course, but there are few better course managers than Jimenez and with his confidence sky-high, he will be a very tough opponent to beat

Jose Maria Olazabal to beat Michael Campbell -111 @ SIA [2 units]
Repeat of last week's unsuccessful play. The open fairways will be welcome news for Olly who another fearsome competitor if only from the fairways onwards

Ernie Els to beat David Duval -111 @ Easybets [2 units]
Hard to see Duval fully motivated for this event else he would not be playing in the JP McManus pro-am on Monday and Tuesday this week when the event starts on Wednesday

Colin Montgomerie to beat David Duval -111 @ SIA [2 units]
Same as above, but if there were any questions about Els' temperament this week, there certainly won't be about Monty's

Retief Goosen to beat Bob May -111 @ Ladbrokes
Inconsistent on this course in the past, May could also still be suffering from his titanic 2nd place finish at the St. Jude - he did the week after

Per-Ulrik Johansson to beat Mathias Gronberg -111 @ Sportingbet
Two of last week's chargers, but when his confidence is high, Johansson is an extremely good player. Much will depend on his opening round to see how fragile his renewed confidence is

Jesper Parnevik to beat Phil Mickelson +100 @ Ladbrokes [2 units]  [same price @ SIA]
Like Duval, Mickelson will be using this event as a warm-up. No such thing for Parnevik, he needs to play well in Europe to secure entry into the final WGC event of the year as a European Tour representative. Was 5th last year after other decent performances

Don't forget. This event starts tomorrow (Wednesday).

Adding:

Ian Woosnam to beat Jarmo Sandelin -110 @ Intertops
Woosie was 2nd two years ago and despite a poor couple of performances in the last two weeks, he should be back to his best this week as the stakes are raised. Sandelin has suddenly discovered his game in the past fortnight, but with no course form he can be discounted as highly erratic

Note also that WSEX are now offering matchups odds on this event and despite a ties lose rule offer odds of -110 on Olazabal over Campbell, -110 on Montgomerie over Duval & +100 on Parnevik to beat Mickelson

Mid-point update:

Two matchups were decided at the halfway cut, but neither were in my favor. Jimenez and Parnevik both crashed out of the event, their matchups against Campbell and Mickelson respectively were not profitable plays. Looking better in the remaining plays with Goosen tied with Begay, Olazabal trailing Campbell by four, Els leading Duval by seven, Monty leading Duval by five, Goosen leading May by three, Johansson leading Gronberg by four and Woosnam trailing Sandelin by seven.

The outright bets are fairing quite well at this stage: Els is joint leader of the tournament, Goosen is one shot back in 6th and Monty another shot back in 11th. Lots still to play for

Final update: 4-5-0 and -3.65 units for the week

Feel a little hard done by with a losing record for this week, two of the five losses were ties and in Europe that means a loss and getting a tie on a 72-hole play is pretty rare, so to get two ...

The remaining five plays alive after the halfway cut finished: Goosen tied with Begay, Olazabal tied with Campbell, Els beat Duval by seventeen, Monty beat Duval by fifteen, Goosen beat May by five, Johansson beat Gronberg by fifteen and Woosnam lost to Sandelin by ten.

Update on outright bets: 2-1 and +9.21 units

Almost a 1-2-3!! Els won the event by one stroke from Lehman with Monty a stroke further back in 3rd. Goosen finished four shots behind Els in a three-way tie for 4th. Profitable week on the outright bets, but would have been extremely nice if Goosen hadn't dropped three shots in the last five holes.