British Open

"The Old Course is the most intriguing and demanding challenge in the whole game" (Jack Nicklaus). Praise indeed. The millennium Open comes home to St Andrews and so has attracted some of the senior players who will come to say goodbye to the British Open. Thursday and Friday may be days of nostalgia, but it won't last into the weekend!

After the carnage of Carnoustie, the huge fairways of St Andrews and calm weather outlook greet the players this week. I can't see a qualifier winning this year. The course has had 172 yards added to take it over the 7,000 yard barrier, but more importantly the altered tees at the 15th and 16th holes will bring the principal fairway bunkers back into the driving zone, Sutherland's Bunker at the 15th and the Principal's Nose at the 16th. When Nick Faldo won this event in 1990 he managed to find sand just once during the whole tournament. Course management will be very important as the faces of these 112  bunkers, some pot, some huge, have been rebuild to be in some cases 80 degrees as well as six to eight feet deep. An errant tee-shot or lack of foresight can be very costly.

The course is extremely dry and length will not be a problem with most players hitting the ball over 300 yards off the tee provided they miss the bunkers or the infrequent rough. Dependent on the wind, Tiger will probably be able to drive six of the fourteen par-fours, but this is not necessarily a great advantage. He will be very fortunate to stay on the green with any of those drives and will have delicate short shots to tricky pin positions. The ideal place to be, if not on the green or in a fairway bunker, will be 100 yards short. The forecast is for little wind, but I don't think St Andrews will be mauled this week.

With course management being more important than length or accuracy off the tee, the emphasis this week will be on players who are high in the greens in regulation and putting average stats. The greens are huge, up to one acre in one case, with a number of double greens, so hitting them should not be too much of a problem. As they are very undulating and with the holes typically placed on or beside ridges, good lag putters will do well here as will good iron players. Those who can consistently hit a target with a radius of 40 feet from the hole will leave themselves will much easier putts.

As with any British seaside course, so much depends on the tee-time. As the wind rise and fall with the tides, so the luck of the draw plays a large part this week as well. The weather can change from hour to hour, but moreso in the afternoon when the winds always rise. The current forecast is for quite mild wind, reaching a peak of only 15 mph during the week, with a few showers on Thursday, Friday and Sunday. With that information so important this week, the outright plays will not be posted until the tee-times are known later this today. In the meantime, here are some of the players I like this week.

Beyond Tiger whose form in the British Open in the last few years and on this course in the 1998 Dunhill Cup make him a worthy short-priced favorite, Els should top any 'without Woods' betting. A winner last week, 2nd twice in the two Majors so far this year and a fine record in the Dunhill Cup make him worth backing. The two others for now are Darren Clarke and Sergio Garcia. Clarke was 3rd in 1997 and has been a regular competitor in the Dunhill Cup with a good scoring average in the past two years. Links golf is suited to his game. Garcia was blown away at Carnoustie last year, more by false expectations and ego than by the wind, but the winds are not forecast to be a major issue this week, his ego has deflated somewhat and his showed in Ballybunion three weeks ago - until he lost his head for a few holes in the final round - and in the Dunhill Cup around this course last year, he has all the shots needed this week, including a deft short game.

Will post some early matchup plays soon and the outright plays later this evening.

72-hole plays:

Thomas Bjorn to beat Stuart Appleby -111 @ Victor Chandler
Appleby has missed the cut in the last six majors, Bjorn has been 30th and 8th in the British Open the last two years. With temperament under control, he could figure as strongly as he did in the US Open. The missed cuts must play on Appleby's game

Nick Price to beat Stuart Appleby -125 @ Olympic [3 units]
Wrong player favored here. Excellent record in Dunhill Cup and reinvigorated by his 2nd place in the Western Open, Price is another who could figure much stronger than many would have thought a month ago

Nick Price to beat Michael Campbell -110 @ Five Dimes  [same odds @ Island Casino & Sportbet]
Mixed bag from Campbell. Was 3rd here in 1995, but has since played poorly in this event and at St Andrews in the Dunhill Cup. Better player this year, but Price is one who is able to raise his game for the Majors

Steve Flesch to beat Stewart Cink +100 @ Canbet
As consistent a top-10 player as they come, should only be a matter of time before Flesch translates that into top-10s in Majors and win on the PGA Tour. He should prevail against someone with a very poor British Open record

Darren Clarke to beat Hal Sutton -115 @ WSEX
2nd three years ago to Leonard and twice the player who finished 31st here in 1995, Clarke could very well be the best 'home' player. Sutton infrequent entrant to this tournament, not being a fan of links golf and with a recent fall in form, can't see much of a challenge from him this week

Padraig Harrington to beat Carlos Franco -110 @ Intertops
Like Clarke, Harrington has a decent record in the British Open, being well-suited to links golf. Franco does not have a good record in this event at all and playing [poorly] until Sunday in the Greater Milwaukee Open is hardly ideal preparation

Justin Leonard to beat Carlos Franco -111 @ Sportingbet
1st and 2nd in two of his last three British Open is proof that he is a capable links golfer. Has shown glimpses of better form in the last two months so he may challenge again. Not anticipated from Franco.

Bob May to beat Tim Herron -130 @ Olympic [2 units]
15th last week for May was a good effort in such a quality field and with his years of European Tour experience will help him this week; no real form for Herron who has missed the cut in both the year's Majors so far

John Huston to beat Lee Janzen -110 @ Intertops [3 units]
Huston hasn't missed a Majors cut in the past three year and has been 14th and 4th so far this year; a big occasion player who was 30th on this course five years ago. Janzen has won a Major but is not at all impressive on the links

Bernhard Langer to beat Lee Janzen -115 @ Olympic [2 units]
He may be past his best, but Langer is a thorough as they come. He will be well-prepared and give 100% effort and could repeat his top-20 finish of last year. Janzen may be top-50 but no more

Jesper Parnevik to beat Davis Love -111 @ Centrebet
Tentative play this one. Allegedly 'cured' of his hip injury, Parnevik still struggled last week. If there are no injury problems, the Swede who has been 2nd, 4th and 10th in the last three Opens would be a very strong title contender. Love also has a decent Open record, but has been playing very poorly since his swing changes

Nick Price to beat Davis Love -111 @ Easybets
Another chance to oppose an out-of-sorts Love with a player tipped to challenge this week

1st round plays - more than any other venue, morning tee-times at a seaside links are a big advantage

Nick Price to beat Michael Campbell -110 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Darren Clarke to beat Sergio Garcia -110 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Darren Clarke to beat Vijay Singh -105 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Jim Furyk to beat David Duval -110 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Jesper Parnevik to beat Ernie Els +115 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -110 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Tom Lehman to beat Davis Love -110 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Phil Mickelson to beat Vijay Singh -120 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Outright plays:

The three plays are Ernie Els, Darren Clarke and the dark horse, Robert Allenby. The winners of the Loch Lomond do not have a great record the week after - Monty (15th), Westwood (64th) and Lehman (24th) are testimony to the adage that you shouldn't win the week before a Major. Not something to worry the Big Easy who last week overcame the only suspect part of his current game, closing out tournaments. He loves this course, has played it many times via the Dunhill Cup and was very much in contention for the 1995 British Open here until the final round. If anyone can beat Tiger this week, Els will.

That accolade has already been granted to Darren Clarke with his memorable WGC Matchplay victory. It was not simply his form, but the way he refused to be fazed by Tiger's persona. It was the mark of a Major winner, of whom Nicklaus has lamented there are so few. His best chance is on the British links courses, the type of course on which he grew up. A spirited 2nd to Leonard three years ago will be vital experience for he is a far better player now. A decent 1st-round tee-time and he should be difficult to dislodge from the leaderboard if he takes advantage of it.

This week's outsider is the twice-winner on the PGA Tour this year alone, Robert Allenby. The 'walking one-iron' with such a steely nerve that he has never lost a play-off, is a man with years of experience of links golf. His last two attempts at the British Open have yielded finishing positions of 10th and 18th, when the Open was here in 1995 he was 15th and he is a much better player now. Like Clarke and Els, his recent wins will have made him all the more ready for the challenge for this week's title.

The best e/w odds for Els are 14/1 found at Ladbrokes, though they only pay on the first four places. It is a handicap worth taking on for the odds of 80/1 on Robert Allenby - Sportingbet quote him at 40/1. Finally, Clarke is available at the very attractive odds of 40/1 with Victor Chandler who do pay on the first five places for the e/w bet as these three are.

Five Dimes are really trying hard to get a LOT of my action. They have 46 matchups for this event and 45 matchups for the 1st round alone   Now I could be made to look really silly tomorrow, but I don't believe the linesmaker at Five Dimes understands weather conditions next to the sea - tides, winds and all that. Of course, there'll not be a breath of wind tomorrow now!

Adding:

72-hole plays

Robert Allenby to beat Stuart Appleby -105 @ DAS [2 units]
Continuation of above. Allenby to be a strong contender this week, Appleby to again struggle to make a Major cut. The more cuts he misses, the greater the pressure

Angel Cabrera to beat Mark Calcavecchia +110 @ Dunes
Wrong player favored here. Cabrera was 4th last year and has had a great season so far. Like Calc he does struggle a little on the greens, but a great ball-striker that can conjure up all types of shots

Craig Parry to beat Stewart Cink -111 @ DAS
Another play against Cink, this time with 'Popeye' Parry who was 4th last year and has a decent record in the Dunhill Cup. Probably will not be top-10 again unless the wind blows

Darren Clarke to beat Vijay Singh +105 @ Moneyplays  * SCALP  Singh +105 @ DAS *
Can't understand this line, Clarke can be found @ -125 elsewhere hence the scalp. Already discussed these two - Clarke to be a serious contender, Singh to be top-20 again but no more

FWIW  Better prices available: May/Herron -125 @ Five Dimes; Langer/Janzen -110 @ Five Dimes; Parnevik/Love -105 @ Olympic or Five Dimes

1st round plays - reasoning same as before:

Nick Price to beat Stuart Appleby -125 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Notah Begay to beat Michael Campbell -115 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Thomas Bjorn to beat Bernhard Langer -120 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Hal Sutton to beat Carlos Franco -115 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Justin Leonard to beat Vijay Singh -110 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Jesper Parnevik to beat Davis Love -110 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Lee Westwood to beat Colin Montgomerie -120 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Craig Parry to beat Chris Perry -115 @ Five Dimes

Jeff Sluman to beat Bob Tway -120 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

Steve Stricker to beat David Toms -105 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

FWIW  Better price available: Parnevik/Els +130 @ Moneyplays

1st round update: 8-7-3 and +1.92 units

What a lot of effort for such a small profit! Well, the wind didn't even reach the predicted 15 mph in the afternoon, just ten, so avoiding a disaster is important. Only 5mph winds forecast for tomorrow, so the very un-British weather continues   All in all, an eventful day - both Begay and Garcia holed pitch in for eagles, Begay then had a 'mare on the 17th and played out of the Swilken burn just after van de Velde had walked by on the 2nd fairway, Calc used his putter when in the road hole bunker and it looks like we'll have a titanic tussle between Els and Tiger to make it a truly memorable event.

The 1st round results: Price/Campbell 4 down; Clarke/Garcia 2 down; Clarke/Singh all square; Furyk/Duval 1 up; Parnevik/Els 7 down; Jimenez/Olazabal 1 down; Lehman/Love 6 up; Mickelson/Singh 2 down; Price/Appleby 3 down; Begay/Campbell 3 up; Bjorn/Langer 5 up; Sutton/Franco all square; Leonard/Singh all square; Parnevik/Love 1 up; Westwood/Montgomerie 1 up; Parry/Perry 2 up; Sluman/Tway 1 up; Stricker/Tway 4 down.

The 72-hole standings: Bjorn/Appleby 4 up; Price/Appleby 3 down; Price/Campbell 4 down; Flesch/Cink 2 up; Clarke/Sutton 5 up; Harrington/Franco 7 up; Leonard/Franco 5 up; May/Herron 5 up; Huston/Janzen 1 down; Langer/Janzen 1 up; Parnevik/Love 1 up; Price/Love 2 down; Allenby/Appleby 1 up; Cabrera/Calcavecchia 1 down; Parry/Cink 3 down; Clarke/Singh all square. All in all, looking quite good, standing at 9-6-1 with the only really bad pick being Nick Price [three times!].

Will have 2nd plays later this evening.

2nd round plays:

Bernhard Langer to beat Thomas Bjorn +105 @ Five Dimes

Padraig Harrington to beat Stewart Cink +105 @ Bowmans

Vijay Singh to beat Darren Clarke -115 @ Five Dimes

Sergio Garcia to beat Tom Lehman +105 @ WWTS

Retief Goosen to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez -120 @ Five Dimes

Jose Maria Olazabal to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez -120 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Vijay Singh to beat Justin Leonard -120 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Vijay Singh to beat Phil Mickelson -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Colin Montgomerie to beat Lee Westwood -105 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 4-4-1 and +0.45 units

After grind out day when weather conditions make capping difficult. Should have been a lot better, but Langer and Singh both drove out of bounds at the 14th   The 2nd round results: Langer/Bjorn 1 down; Harrington/Cink 1 up; Singh/Clarke 1 down; Garcia/Lehman 1 up; Goosen 1 down; Olazabal 1 up; Singh/Leonard 4 up; Singh/Mickelson 4 down; Montgomerie/Westwood all square.

Ten of the sixteen 72-hole matchups were concluded at the halfway cut, with results of 6-4-0: Langer/Janzen 3 up; Leonard/Franco 4 up; Harrington/Franco 8 up; Huston/Janzen 1 up; May/Herron 5 up; Cabrera/Calcavecchia 3 down; Clarke/Sutton 6 up; Price/Love 6 down; Price/Campbell 1 down; Price/Appleby 3 down. Not a good week to back Nick Price!

The remaining six 72-hole matchups look reasonably favorable as well: Bjorn/Appleby 5 up; Flesch/Cink 5 up; Parnevik/Love 2 down; Allenby/Appleby all square; Parry/Cink 2 down; Clarke/Singh 1 up. Not a get rich quick week, but at least we're grinding out the profits.

3rd round plays:

Robert Allenby to beat Stuart Appleby -110 @ Moneyplays  [same odds @ the other UGS books]

Robert Allenby to beat Peter Senior -163 @ Sportingbet

Lee Westwood to beat Vijay Singh +105 @ the Starnet books

Lee Westwood to beat Jeff Sluman -125 @ Moneyplays [2 units]

Adding:

Lionel Alexandre to beat Dudley Hart +250 @ Ladbrokes

Robert Allenby to beat Peter Senior -125 @ Intertops [2 units] [wish they had this line up when I made the original play ]

Jim Furyk to beat Steve Jones -145 @ Five Dimes

Lee Westwood to beat Jose Maria Olazabal +110 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 2-5-0 and -1.55 units

Not a good day to back Lee Westwood, just as well the huge dog came through as did the 3-unit play. Westwood shot 76 and lost to Sluman who shot 75 , Singh who shot 73 and Olazabal who at least broke par with a 71. Furyk shot 75 to lose to another who didn't break par, Steve Pate, who had a 72. Split the plays on Allenby who only shot 72 as well, but enough to beat playing partner, Peter Senior, by two shots, in the banker play, but was a distant four shots behind Appleby. Very satisfying though was the +250 winner, Lionel Alexandre, who was leading Dudley Hart when he withdrew with a bad back. The Frenchman did drop 7 shots in the last six holes to fall to a 76, but proved up to then that the line on their pairing was way out of line.

Will have 4th round plays later this evening.

4th round plays:

Notah Begay to beat Stuart Appleby -118 @ Sportodds

Fred Couples to beat Stuart Appleby +110 @ Moneyplays [2 units]  [same odds @ the other UGS books]

Padraig Harrington to beat Stuart Appleby -105 @ Moneyplays  [same odds @ the other UGS books]

Darren Clarke to beat Dennis Paulson -120 @ Moneyplays  [same odds @ On-Line Casino]

Darren Clarke to beat Loren Roberts -120 @ the Starnet books

Darren Clarke to beat David Toms -110 @ Moneyplays [2 units]  [same odds @ the other UGS books]

Tom Kite to beat Kazuhiko Hosokawa +100 @ Ladbrokes [2 units]

Mark O'Meara to beat Steve Jones +110 @ GoTo Casino [2 units]  [same odds @ Playersbet & Enterbet]

Jesper Parnevik to beat Davis Love +100 @ Moneyplays  [same odds @ the other UGS books]

Mark O'Meara to beat Jean van de Velde +120 @ GoTo Casino  [same odds @ Playersbet & Enterbet]

Eduardo Romero to beat Jean van de Velde +110 @ Sportingbet

Lee Westwood to beat Ian Woosnam -140 @ Intertops

Adding:

Ernie Els to beat Steve Flesch -120 @ GoTo Casino

Final update: 4-6-3 and -1.83 units for the day; 28-28-7 and +2.87 units for the week

Lots of plays this week, but never gained or lost more than two units per unit, though at least the 72-hole plays finished 10-6-0. The results for the final round: Begay/Appleby 1 down; Couples/Appleby 1 up; Harrington/Appleby 2 down; Clarke/Paulson all square; Clarke/Roberts all square; Clarke/Toms 2 down; Kite/Hosokawa 1 down; O'Meara/Jones 1 up; Parnevik/Love 5 down; O'Meara/Velde 2 up; Romero/Velde 1 down; Westwood/Woosnam all square; Els/Flesch 5 up.

Results of remaining 72-hole plays: Bjorn/Appleby 4 up; Flesch/Cink 5 up; Parnevik/Love 5 down; Allenby/Appleby 5 down; Parry/Cink 1 up; Clarke/Singh 1 up.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and -0.25 units

Break even on the outrights as well. Els finishes 2nd for the 3rd Major in a row, despite leading the event after 18 holes; Clarke missed some very short putts on the front nine and then there's no lifting his head, he fell back to 7th; while Allenby never challenged and finished well down in 36th.