Johnnie Walker Classic

Outright plays (1 unit):

Ernie Els to win 9/2 available generally
Certainly the top player in this field and deemed to be value at 9/2. He won the Sony Open in very impressive style two weeks ago and has an even more impressive record in this event: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 1st in his last five attempts. He should take a big step towards defending his Order of Merit title this week.

Thomas Bjorn to win 25/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler and Paddy Power
First start of the season for Bjorn, but it certainly would have been no advantage to have been playing in South Africa last week. Last season was certainly a memorable year for the Dane after he came so close to winning the British Open, but he finish the year in style, winning the Dunlop Phoenix Tournament and finishing 3rd in the Hong Kong Open in his last two starts. Any repeat of that form should make him a likely contender to Els.

Colin Montgomerie to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
It's been a long time since Monty was tipped in the outrights here and he was very nearly passed over in favour of Jaidee (66/1), but there are some good reason to expect a strong performance from him. For one, he has won his last events on the Davidoff Tour (2002 TCL Classic and 2003 Macau Open) so he can certainly compete on the type of courses found in this region. And secondly, he was in good form for three rounds in the South African Open. He finished 16th, but if he had only shot 70 (rather than 78) in the 2nd round, he would have joined Immelman in the playoff. Enough reason to hope for a top-5 finish.

Final update: 1-2; +0.63 units

Els 10th
Bjorn 2nd
Montgomerie 13th

What a ****er! Cue memories of last year's Open Championship, in the final round Bjorn stood on the tee at the par-5 14th hole one shot ahead and on the par-5 17th hole tied with Jimenez for the lead. Both times he carved his drive over 60 yards to the right and into lakes that were no more than cosmetic additions to the course! He had been leading after every round until it really mattered. Monty suffered a similar loss of ability when dropping shots on the 14th and 15th. He finished two shots out of a tie for 4th place. And he was "very nearly passed over in favour of Jaidee (66/1)" ... and Jaidee did finish 4th. Could have, should have, but didn't finish a great week!