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Omega Hong Kong Open
Outright plays (1 unit):
Soren Hansen to win 22/1 @ BetaBet
Going for a Danish treble this week! If there was a surprisingly low-key start
to the 2003 European Tour season last week, this week is even more so. Europe's
best are chasing the mega-bucks at Sun City and the Danes (including Bjorn) look
the best of the European contingent. While not reaching the form which brought
him a victory and a runners-up spot in June, he has been playing well recently
with each of his last 13 rounds bar one (82 in the 3rd round of the Volvo
Masters!) under par and a top-10 finish last week. He does have the benefit of
playing the course last year and 22/1 looks a decent price, when 16/1 is almost
universal.
Anders Hansen to win 22/1 @ Victor
Chandler
Anders Hansen does not have the benefit of course experience, but he does have a
respectable record in Asia - he secured a top-5 finish in last year's Singapore
Masters - and is in excellent form and rested from a tiring season. He finished
in the top-15 in the last three events on the 2002 European Tour and finished
3rd in the Italian Open. Already a winner this year, he is very capable of
winning this week as well and so gets the nod over Lafeber who, while getting
closer to the winning line, still stumbles when close.
Soren Kjeldsen to win 80/1 e.w. @ BetInternet (6 places)
The third Dane to be picked is not the short-priced Bjorn, but someone who has
yet to win on Tour, but is considerably overpriced. There is a large discrepancy
in the price for Kjeldsen, which can only be explained by his performance on
this course last year. He withdrew from the event and so has been accorded a
large price by some firms. However, he had been inside the top-10 after two
rounds and quit on the course during the 3rd round, complaining of feeling weak
and dizzy. He was diagnosed with influenza. His recent form has been patchy, but
it includes a top-10 finish in the Open de Madrid and he is acclimatized after
finishing 36th last week. Having played well on this course last year and with a
desire to carry on where he left off before he fell ill, Kjeldsen could be a
dark-horse this week.
Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):
Nick Faldo to beat Fredrik Jacobson -111 @ BetandWin [2 units]
Barry Lane to beat Fredrik Jacobson -133 @ Five
Dimes
Jarmo Sandelin to beat Fredrik Jacobson -110 @ Bet365
Barry Lane to beat Charlie Wi -118 @ Easybets
[2 units]
Lian-Wei Zhang to beat Francois Lucquin -111 @ BetandWin [2 units]
Henrik Nystrom to beat Ted Oh -111 @ BetandWin [2 units]
Mid-point update:
Faldo/Jacobson All Square
Lane/Jacobson All Square
Sandelin/Jacobson Trails by 2
Lane/Wi WON by 7
Zhang/Lucquin Leads by 2
Nystrom/Oh Leads by 5
Soren Hansen 10th
Anders Hansen 64th
Kjeldsen 44th
Decent position at the cut though only one matchup is decided and Jacobson's
return to form is a worry. In the outrights, all three still have a chance with
a very congested leaderboard, though Kjeldsen had been 6th after the 1st round
and Lafeber is doing considerably better than his replacement, Anders Hansen, in
10th place.
Final update:
Matchups: 2-4-0; -2.87 units
Faldo/Jacobson LOST by 6
Lane/Jacobson LOST by 10
Sandelin/Jacobson LOST by 16
Zhang/Lucquin LOST by 1
Nystrom/Oh WON by 15
Outrights: 1-2; +5.50 units
Soren Hansen 40th
Anders Hansen 26th
Kjeldsen 4th
Not a good week to oppose Jacobson! He won the event! But if Zhang hadn't
double-bogeyed the last hole, the matchups would have been in profit for the
week. At least Kjeldsen's fine weekend meant it was a profitable event overall.
He was the only player in the top-10 to shoot an over-par round all week. More
than makes up for Soren Hansen's disappointing performance - he was 4th after 53
holes.
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